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Prelude to a Recovery

23 July 2010 8:23pm By: Rex

Give your boss two weeks notice, say goodbye to the neighbors, grab your kids (not like that), sell your house, rent a U-haul, and move to Vegas.  

Tourists worldwide have realized the error of their ways, and Las Vegas has finally come back.  Rooms rates are up, occupancy rates are near 100%, and the gaming tables are full. Plans to build a new airport are going forward, and both the Fontainebleau and Echelon Place will be opening next week.  It is a new era in Las Vegas.  An era ushered in by record visitor numbers fostered by a huge wave of optimism.

It's 2005 all over again.

Hey, this is a day we all knew was coming.  Right?

How could it not?

Las Vegas couldn't possibly stay depressed forever.  It was bound to make a comeback.  I mean, it just had to.  It always has before, and this is irrefutable evidence that it always will again.  Everything in the world is cyclical, and this means that all down trends are followed by up trends.  Always.  Every time.  Just look at Flint, Michigan.  Unemployment is a thing of the past.  The automotive industry finally came to its senses and they opened 5 new assembly plants with the stated goal of making the bestest, safest, fastest, most reliable, most ass-kickinest cars the world has ever seen!

USA!

USA!

USA!

While the beginning of this article may seem like a parody to some, I can assure you that there are thousands of people across the Las Vegas Valley who are convinced that it will someday become a reality.

My neighbor is one of them.

For the last several weeks, I have been having a semi-daily, friendly debate with him.  He has lived in Rexville since the 1970's, and he assures me ... unequivocally ... that we are mere years, if not months, from a full-on comeback.  He has been tempted to move out of Vegas on a few occasions, but he doesn't want to sell now.  Definitely not now.

Instead, he wants to wait for the rebound.  He wants to wait until the Fontainebleau opens, and he wants to wait until the corner of Sahara and Las Vegas Boulevard becomes the new Times Square.

As he has been relating his hopes and aspirations to me, I have listened politely, nodded my head, and when it has come time for me to express my opinion, I have done so with one key word: "Why".

For the past couple of years, I feel like people across the valley have been sitting in their houses, arms crossed, waiting for someone to bring Las Vegas back.  I feel like shareholders and casino owners have been doing the same.  Every talking head in the city, every optimistic resident, every new business owner in the Valley is absolutely convinced that Vegas is going to stage a huge comeback, but nobody has ever told me why they think this will happen.  

In order for a rebound to occur, there must be a catalyst for it.  Someone must actually DO something.  There must be a spark, a change, a paradigm shift ... a REASON for it to come back ... yet to date, nobody has given me an actual reason for why this will happen.

This passive optimism troubles me.

You see, wishful thinking is not enough to revive a city.  Instead, real changes have to be made.  Positive changes.  Overwhelmingly positive changes. 

As of today, very few of these changes have been made.  If anything, some things (such as gaming odds) have changed for the worse.

In order for the economy to get better in Las Vegas, one of two things has to happen:

 

  1. The tourism industry must recover
  2. New industries must move in, bringing jobs and opportunities wholly unrelated to tourism

 

Since there is no sign of #2 happening (I ate a lot of bananas yesterday), the entire city is hanging its hat on #1.

But, why would #1 happen?

WHY I ask you?

Why would tourists once again want to start dropping large amounts of money in Las Vegas?

Gambling odds have been depressed to insulting levels, the police are raiding clubs left and right trying to eradicate drugs and prostitution from "Sin City", security guards are harassing everyone wielding a camera (which these days is literally everyone), "terrorist" paranoia is rampant, hotels are hitting customers with ever-increasing junk fees, cab drivers are fleecing tourists to pad the pockets of their corrupt bosses, air travel is becoming more of a hassle by the month, cheap labor is destroying customer service, and The Strip is starting to look like an office park on the outskirts of Atlanta, Georgia.

This?  This is what is going to revive the Las Vegas economy?

Why would it?

Who does this appeal to?

"Damn, Rex.  It sounds like all you do is whine and complain.  All you do is point out the negatives.  Anyone can dwell on bad things.  Unless you offer solutions, you're just like the cross-armed optimists waiting out the recession in their underwater houses."

Well, whoever you are, you're not accurate.  You did, however, craft a fine rebuttal for a 98'er.  It's certainly worth a solid C+ for effort.

Contentment and optimism have never spurred change.  Appreciating the status-quo, making the best of things, or looking on the bright side are not virtues, they are vices.  They are the domain of the common idiot. 

Progress occurs almost solely because of malcontents.  Think about it, if everyone had been content with catching mice by hand, there would be no mousetrap.  If Henry Ford had been content to walk, there would be no car.  If some guy somewhere had not sat around and bitched about the heat, we would not have air-conditioning.  If Layne Staley had been content to just say no, we would not have "Junkhead".  If every tea-drinking, fish-and-chip eating, limey bastard had been content with the King's government, we would not have the USA.  If some dickhead in Las Vegas had been content with "Las Vegas is amazing, click here to book now" blogs, the internet would have 10,000 fewer pictures.  If everyone got good grades and happily went to college to "get a good job", who in the hell would create those jobs?

Face it, some loser has to hate life, drop out, decide they would rather be a good master than a good slave, and start Apple Computer.  Were it not for egotistical, misanthropic, malcontents convinced of their own intellectual superiority, we would all still be living in caves, trying to heat dinner by banging two rocks together.  

I digress.

While I take a lot of heat for "not being happy in Las Vegas", I don't necessarily see this as a bad thing.  If I were happy in Las Vegas, there is an 80% chance I would be upside-down in a house right now.  Someone has to point out that things are going awry, and when 99% of the people in this town depend on kissing Vegas ass for their own livelihood, there aren't many people left to balance out the equation.

For the past 5 years, I have been yeling, nay, SCREAMING to anyone who will listen, exactly what needs to be done to restore Las Vegas to the most sought-after tourist destination in the USA.  The problem is, nobody has listened to me.  Instead, they have been beating the same tired ideas, hoping beyond hope that they would all of a sudden miraculously work.

Frankly, I know that if my ideas are implemented, the chances of Vegas making a "comeback" are very high.

Simply put, pool parties and ringtone bands are not going to do it.  They're not.  I promise.  If you think they will, then speak to me in five more years when you are still sitting arms-crossed in your McMansion Ghetto decrying the fact that your house has depreciated another 50% and your son's 11th grade English teacher can't speak English.

Vegas needs to change, and it needs to change radically in order to regain the momentum it has lost.

"Fine Rex, since you know what needs to be done to save Las Vegas, indulge us with your brilliant ideas."

Hey, ask and you shall receive:

10 Things Las Vegas Must Do to "Recover"

 

Comments Prelude to a Recovery

  • 27/07/2010 6:44pm by RICK

    I would agree Vegas needs to "turn back the clock" on things like pricing, etc. But, I also think the vast majority of people still think of Vegas in the old way. They can go there and do whatever they like for a few days. So, why aren't they going then? I don't think it has much to do with what Vegas is doing. I think it has everything to do with the economy and state of the country. People just don't know what's coming around the corner. There's no optimism out there. To take off and spend $1000 on a weekend vacation just can't happen when you're getting taxed from every direction and you don't know if you'll have a job in 6 months. People are getting hammered every day by government looking to take their money and spend it somewhere else. There's not much left to have fun with. And yes the local casinos popping up in seemingly every state also make it infinitely easier to drive an hour and spend $100 for a night out. Give people their money back - rich and poor - and get out of the way. Jobs will come seemingly overnight. And with that will come disposable income.

  • 26/07/2010 8:58pm by Ken

    Rex, you can't sling a dead cat now without hitting a casino somewhere in the US."excess profit creates excess competition". The corporate assholes never snap to this until it's too late. By the way, please tell your new and improved blog guys that their "type words" are a pain in the ass to read.

  • 25/07/2010 6:01pm by MR

    For 10 years I used to drive to Vegas every other month but now I almost need to force myself to go just once a year. The high costs of rooms and meals along with the piss-poor service has diminished my desire to ever set foot on the strip again. If it wasn't for downtown I would swear off Vegas for good.

    Personally it's more enjoyable playing cards once a week at Commerce or The Bicycle. I would also rather spend $300/night for a room at Maui than some cesspool in the middle of the desert.

  • 25/07/2010 3:28am by Herk115

    Before I read your Top Ten list, Rex, let me speculate ahead of time and see if I'm right. It will all boil down to "Bring the sin back to Sin City and make it affordable." Right? If that's what you're going to say, I'm all for it.

    An office park-like hotel with outrageous rates and fees where I have to behave myself at all time, I can get anywhere, like right here at home.

  • 24/07/2010 5:50pm by keith

    "he wants to wait until the corner of Sahara and Las Vegas Boulevard becomes the new Times Square."

    does this means he envisions no vehicle traffic on that corner, just like what Bloomberg did to the real times square?

    seriously, you can't drive thru times square anymore. a major intersection in one of the busiest cities in the world, but hey - let's make cars go completely around several blocks!

  • 24/07/2010 3:32pm by Kid Dynamite

    @TedNewkirk - I'm kinda confused by the conclusion in your comment. I was nodding along, agreeing 100% as you rightly explained that the bubble era of the mid 2000s was not "normal," but i'm shocked you concluded that things will recover in a handful of years.

    the problem is that Vegas was built up and developed to bubble level demands. Even in normal times, the supply/demand balance will be skewed the wrong way in favor of supply, which is precisely the problem I don't see a solution for.

  • 24/07/2010 8:58am by Bill

    Vegas needs better VPoker paytables. We stay home & gamble on just the same bad paytables and save the travel money & room money (don't have to beg for the comp) my bed is better anyway.They need to bring back the good paytables at least for the tourists.I ask the Gold Coast about them taking away the full pay deuces wild my wife loves to play - they said there not bringing it back - EVER.
    I told them were not coming back to the Gold Coast - Ever

  • 24/07/2010 8:29am by Ted Newkirk

    Everybody talks of recovery. You don't "recover" back to a boom time. The mid-2000's were a huge aberration. That is the "recovery" most people want.

    We are currently much closer to traditionally normal numbers. 36 million yearly visitors is nothing to sneeze at.

    Visitor numbers and ADR's continue to creep up. Over the next few years, they will continue to creep up to where it makes financial sense to where half-finished projects will be completed.

    6-5 sucks. Resort fees suck. CityCenter took away from the Disneyland look of The Strip. We need better mass transit in the resort areas. No arguments from me there.

    Side Note: Subways don't work... go try to dig a hole in your backyard and see how quickly you hit rock that is nearly impossible to bust up.

    But don't blame bad customer service on slave-like working conditions. People who moved here during the boom are pissed that they aren't making what they made a few years ago. And were stupid enough to buy a home during the boom so they are upside down now (Centennial Hills, anyone). Guess what guys... that pot of gold at the end of the rainbow was a mirage (and I'm not talking about the one Steve Wynn built). How about you be damn happy you have a job.

    I realize that you (Rex) console yourself be telling yourself that anybody who could actually enjoy living here must have a low IQ. Whatever makes you feel better.

    But I'm with your neighbor. 5-6 years down the road (barring something unforeseen), projects will be finished, visitor numbers will be back pushing 39 million a year, most of the carpetbaggers who moved here during the boom will have left, and Las Vegas will once again be the amazing place it was to live (and party in) that it was during the previous number of decades.

    At least I was smart enough to leave the Pacific Northwest to come live in a place that I really enjoy. The guy with the world-record IQ can't find his ay to do the same(in reverse). I must be really stupid, because that makes absolutely no sense to me. We only have so many years on the planet. Spend them where you're happiest!

  • 24/07/2010 8:14am by The Fonz

    I haven't read the list yet, but I'd have to say one of them is bring back "old Vegas."

    Let's face it, if I make a million dollars off my first book next year, and millions more after that, I'm not going to be that interested in low stakes poker at El Cortez or $25 match play coupons at Sahara. I'm going to spend my cash at Bellagio, or somewhere like that.

    But to this point I'm a regular guy, in a dying profession, without a ton of cash to burn on an annual basis. I need American Casino Guide discounts, low table minimums and cheap drinks when I'm not at a blackjack table. I'm not the only one. What I crave is not on the strip, and it's a good thing, I've been priced off the strip since my first visit to Vegas, Jan. 2-5, 1997.

    There's a healthy customer base for Bellagio, Paris, et al, but there's a need for Boardwalk, Westward Ho and New Frontier, too.

    Vegas needs to stop chasing after the whales, because many of them have been beached in the last five years, and too many of us are not going to start dropping $10 for a Captain diet just because we stop living hand to mouth next year. Many new, young morons will find their way to Vegas and overpay to convince themselves they're having the best time of their lives, but supply is going to exceed demand for a long, long time, I suspect.

  • 24/07/2010 5:49am by Hawaiianmark

    "Pool parties and Ringtone Bands"

    Classic.

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