How do you know if a casino bonus offers positive expected value? Here we will teach you how to make the calculations and how to win money in online casinos with a little help from bonuses.
A casino bonus always has impact on your results. If you sign-up with a site offering a $100 bonus, you will, after the wagering requirements are met, have an extra $100 to play with or withdraw.
This is money you otherwise would have missed out on.
But the question is: can you find a casino bonus that makes you a winner?
Well, as a matter of fact it is possible. It is not as easy as it was a couple of years ago when quite a few people earned a lot of money from "bonus whoring," but even today you might stumble upon bonuses offering positive expected value every now and then.
How to find a Bonus with +EV
First of all, you need to understand the house edge - the advantage the casino has on every wager you make. If you for instance play blackjack, and follow the basic strategy, you can get the house edge down to 1 percent.
This means that if you make 1,000 bets at $1, the casino will on average take $0.01 on every wager. In the end you will theoretically have lost $10 (0.01 x 1.000 = 10).
House Edge vs. Bonus
If you play without a bonus, the game is of course unbeatable.
That is how all casino games are designed and how the house makes money. But what if you in the previous example had a pending bonus worth $15 that was released after 1,000 blackjack hands? Then you would have gained $5 although you lost $10 in the actual game.
So to find bonuses with positive expected value you must compare how much bonus you will earn and how much you will lose in the game when meeting the wagering requirements.
An Example of a Casino Bonus
Say that you find a "100% up to $100" sign-up bonus, which means that the casino doubles your deposit when the requirements are met. You study the terms and conditions to find out how much you need to wager to get the bonus:
"In order to cash out any amount of money you must wager at least forty-five (45) times your bonus plus deposit." - Casino X
This means that you need to wager ($100 + $100) x 45 = $9,000 before the bonus is released.
Now you compare games in the casino to find one with low edge. Also make sure that you are allowed to clear the bonus with the game you chose. Some casinos exclude certain games from their bonus offers.
You chose to play blackjack with 1 percentage house edge. When you have wagered $9,000 the house has deducted $90 ($9,000 x 0.01 = $90).
In this example you lost $90 in the game but earned a $100 bonus, which results in true positive-expected value. So when you compare bonuses before signing up with a casino, do the following:
Look at the bonus value
Study the terms and conditions to get the wagering requirements
Compare the house edge with what you have to wager
If the bonus value exceeds what you have to pay to get the bonus, you have received positive expected value. And to make things even more interesting, CasinoTop10 has exclusive bonus deals that are better than the ones promoted on the casinos' homepages. So if you chose one of them, you have the chance to get an even higher value on the money you deposit.